Tuesday, September 21, 2004
TRM Corp. (TRMM) surged more than 33 percent after the company agreed to acquire a network of 17,000 ATMs from eFunds (EFD)whose shares rallied almost 14 percent.
Today's Posting - Sep 21, 2004
9/21/2004 ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated
Last: 50.45 +2.5 upgraded by J.P. Morgan to Neutral from Underweight. Follows 'tough' seasonal quarter; says news of major new product release in Q1 eliminates last major concern about trough of product cycle.
Shares rose almost 4 percent after the software company outpaced its previously raised third-quarter financial targets due to strong demand.
9/21/2004 LEXR Lexar Media Inc
Last: 8.78 +1.12 upgraded by Susquehanna Financial Group to Net Positive from Net Neutral. Says demand for flash cards is increasing while pricing pressure has stabilized, putting company in strong position for growth.
Shares of Lexar Media (LEXR: news, chart, profile) rose more than 10 percent after Susquehanna Financial Group raised its rating on the stock to "net positive" from "continued net neutral" citing a belief that demand for its flash memory cards is strengthening. The firm said it thinks Lexar is "well positioned to outgrow the NAND (type) flash market driven by the newly formed relationship with Kodak and a better than expected penetration of NAND flash memory cards in the camera phone market." Susquehanna, which also lifted its financial estimates for Lexar, added that the popular Apple iPod also uses the NAND type of flash memory and that demand is strong with Apple and Hewlett-Packard planning to ship about one million iPods per month starting in October.
Taser International (TASR) advanced more than 5 percent after the company received an order for 360 Taser X26 weapons through Aardvark Tactical intended for the U.S. Army National Guard. The purchase value is over $440,000.
Last: 50.45 +2.5 upgraded by J.P. Morgan to Neutral from Underweight. Follows 'tough' seasonal quarter; says news of major new product release in Q1 eliminates last major concern about trough of product cycle.
Shares rose almost 4 percent after the software company outpaced its previously raised third-quarter financial targets due to strong demand.
9/21/2004 LEXR Lexar Media Inc
Last: 8.78 +1.12 upgraded by Susquehanna Financial Group to Net Positive from Net Neutral. Says demand for flash cards is increasing while pricing pressure has stabilized, putting company in strong position for growth.
Shares of Lexar Media (LEXR: news, chart, profile) rose more than 10 percent after Susquehanna Financial Group raised its rating on the stock to "net positive" from "continued net neutral" citing a belief that demand for its flash memory cards is strengthening. The firm said it thinks Lexar is "well positioned to outgrow the NAND (type) flash market driven by the newly formed relationship with Kodak and a better than expected penetration of NAND flash memory cards in the camera phone market." Susquehanna, which also lifted its financial estimates for Lexar, added that the popular Apple iPod also uses the NAND type of flash memory and that demand is strong with Apple and Hewlett-Packard planning to ship about one million iPods per month starting in October.
Taser International (TASR) advanced more than 5 percent after the company received an order for 360 Taser X26 weapons through Aardvark Tactical intended for the U.S. Army National Guard. The purchase value is over $440,000.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Top tech picks for the next six months
Top tech picks for the next six months
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B99ADAFCF%2D3E43%2D4301%2DBD2C%2D524D530CA904%7D&garden=&minisite=
By Jack Rothstein, Wealthcast
Last Update: 12:40 PM ET Sept. 14, 2004
FAIRFAX, Va. (Wealthcast) -- The current market is in a confirmed rally. The smart money is getting involved. This rally could provide good performance over the next few months.
The posture taken at this time is more aggressive. The exposure is greater because the market is in a rally as the bull market ages gracefully.
The selling that took place this year was controlled. The tape this year has been split. The value side of the equation has gotten the best play. Growth has taken a back seat.
I am going to get into tech stocks right now. If you can't be at risk then avoid stocks. If you can be at risk then get involved employing a method that improves the odds for success. Always use stop losses when getting involved in stocks -- lessons learned from times past.
The stocks that follow are choices I made a while ago. I have been long the following stocks this year and currently carry long positions in each. Today I stuck a toe in the water on Dell Computer (DELL: news, chart, profile).
Technology stocks have under performed this year and there is one big cap that I will examine that is very good for a trade right now and that is IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile).
The tech stocks that I carry the heaviest positions in are Symantech (SYMC: news, chart, profile), Adobe (ADBE: news, chart, profile), Apple (AAPL: news, chart, profile), and Qualcomm (QCOM: news, chart, profile).
Dell
Dell can get another visit and another try. It is trading well right now and will likely challenge the top of its base. If Dell can cross 37.20 on a close in heavy trade then the stock ought to be bought aggressively.
Start buying the stock as it crosses 36.20. I invite you to examine a daily chart and see the action in the stock over the last year. Dell is up only 5 percent this year. It is up only 6 percent in the last 52 weeks. The high made on October 18th of last year will get challenged. Dell is in a long term advance that could receive a burst of energy should the base be taken out. Volume should exceed 20 million shares.
Short covering will lift the shares as well. Pure buyers are better. Use 33.99 as a sell stop.
IBM
The stock is oversold and bouncing off the bottom of its trading range so the risk is low. IBM is a good stock right now and could result in a good trade over the next few months. The stock is good for a trade up to its 200-day moving average. If you want to get cute and go fishing on the bottom for oversold stocks why not choose a big fish.
So IBM is curling off the bottom of its range. That is a fact. The market bottomed on August 13th. IBM bottomed the day before hitting its 52-week low. This is an ugly chart and the best way to handle it is to sell into strength. Stocks like IBM and the Semiconductors as a whole are providing good trading chances right now. The better trade is to sell into strength.
Place the stop on IBM at 84.25. That is below its declining 50-day moving average. Odds favor this stock will be a good short a few months after the election. Right now it is good for a trade up to the 200-day moving average of 90.55. The current price is roughly 87.
Top tech picks
Now for the most exciting stocks right now in the technology sector: Symantech, McAffe, Apple, Qualcomm, and Adobe.
The action in SYMC is quite good. I bought it back recently after selling it in the early spring as it moved into an intermediate term slump.
The stock slumps no longer. This stock SYMC could explode should it cross 51 on a closing basis. The stocks is in fine shape technically. Examine the chart. Don't look at a 5 minute chart. Lets be serious about making real money. This stock as long as it trades above its key inflection points and continues to advance should be owned. How do you buy it? Are you serious about making money in the stock market? Then get involved in stocks that are rising. The way to buy SYMC is on a price above 51 near the close of business. It is on the verge of reaching that key point. That is the 52-week high and its five-year high for that matter. It will go higher for a while.
Growth typically outperforms post election, so this stock -- along with the others mentioned -- tend to outperform. When you take on SYMC you are taking on a stock that provides steady long term growth. It's perhaps the best performing tech stock over the last five years. The stock trades near its all time high. SYMC is up 47 percent this year and 70 percent year over year. Nasdaq ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) has lagged this year thanks to the dismal performance of semiconductors. This stock has led and continues to lead and will provide you steady gains over the next several months. It never dropped below its 200-day moving average this year. It did fail to hold the 50-day line earlier in the year and has since recovered. It needs greater volume to really spark a serious climb.
Related to SYMC is McAfee (MFE: news, chart, profile). This stock can get to 30 quickly if it can plow through 21. Right now is a good time to stick a toe in the water.
It is making a stab toward breaking out to a new 52-week high and trading in sync with SYMC. The charts have similar patterns over the last year. SYMC is the stronger stock of the two yet both can be owned as part of a basket.
They led nicely last year and are still leading the tech space in 2004. MFE is currently up 30 percent this year and 35 percent year over year. The stock has performed quite nicely since bottoming out at the end of July. So the advance has reemerged. A close above 20 and the stock could fly. The 21 range is key and a 50 percent return is doable -- and that could happen within a few months. The odds are pointing in that direction. I invite you to examine the chart of MFE.
Adobe Systems is one of the best software stocks around right now.
The stock broke out the other day in heavy volume when it took out its 52-week high. It popped over that point with ease but the volume is a little disappointing. The stock is a leader no doubt about that. Ask any shareowner how they feel about the current performance in ADBE and they will offer up a smile. Happy shareowners typically means good performance. The stock offers good performance and the numbers provide the evidence.
Clearly the stock is a leader. It broke through the 52-week high the other day. It didn't get there moving straight up. Stocks never do. ADBE did violate its 50- and 200-day moving averages several times this year. The perceived risk in the stock is currently low and that is what is driving the price.
Investors want to own this stock. It enjoys positive money flow yet the volume is not quite where it ought to be to really get excited about its future chances. Right now the stock is up 27 percent this year and only 26 percent in the last 52 weeks. The advance is not mature. The stock can get going. It is way off the five-year high and could take off. It won't get back to the five-year high anytime soon, however. The likely move from my view of the price pattern is a move to the 55 to 57 zone. It currently trades just under 50. The stock is poised to make a move. It could be bought in the 47 to 48 zone. Right now it is slightly extended. It's up over 6 percent in the last five days. It ought to come in a tad and that is a good moment to jump right on it. Use 44.49 and 40.99 to stop the loss.
Apple Computer and QCOM are the final two tech stocks that form the basket of tech stocks that I am currently involved in. I must confess that I trimmed a piece of QCOM at 39 and change the other day because it is slightly extended. QCOM trades close to 30 percent above its 200-day moving average and the stock really has to come in to the 36 to 37 level for it to be attractive. So I took a piece out but am prepared to buy more coming in to its rising 50-day line.
QCOM has a rising 50- and 200- day line and perhaps the best performing large-cap tech stock around. It has been this year and over the last 52 week as well. The stock split 2-for-1 the other day implying confidence. The stock popped into this current advance as the rising 50-day line came in direct contact with the share price.
The last break out in the stock occurred on august 19th. The stock rose at that time in better then average trade pulling away form its rising 50 day line. The stock wants to stay around and trade near that line and as long as that line is rising the stock is likely to follow suite. Place the stop at 33.99.
Apple Computer is a leader that is extended. The stock has made quite the move this year and is perfuming exceedingly well. AAPL is up 67 percent this year. The year over year gain has all occurred this year. The solid advance began after the stock broke through its three-year plus high earlier in the year and struggled for a while finally breaking through recently.
Examine the weekly chart and notice the big gap that is in the process of getting filled. The stock has the potential to rise into the mid 40's and ultimately challenge 55 a share. That was the zone when it free fell on Sept. 29, 2000. It fell from 55 to 26 in a day. It is now on track to backtrack. The stock is currently extended so it could be had between 33 and 34. The stock will not move straight to 55 so manage it.
Place the initial stop loss at the 50 day moving average 31.99 and a final stop at 29.60. Give AAPL some room.
The current market is in rally mode. Europe and Asia have turned as well. Growth tends to outperform value after a presidential election for at least a while. The market will be higher in six months than it is today.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B99ADAFCF%2D3E43%2D4301%2DBD2C%2D524D530CA904%7D&garden=&minisite=
By Jack Rothstein, Wealthcast
Last Update: 12:40 PM ET Sept. 14, 2004
FAIRFAX, Va. (Wealthcast) -- The current market is in a confirmed rally. The smart money is getting involved. This rally could provide good performance over the next few months.
The posture taken at this time is more aggressive. The exposure is greater because the market is in a rally as the bull market ages gracefully.
The selling that took place this year was controlled. The tape this year has been split. The value side of the equation has gotten the best play. Growth has taken a back seat.
I am going to get into tech stocks right now. If you can't be at risk then avoid stocks. If you can be at risk then get involved employing a method that improves the odds for success. Always use stop losses when getting involved in stocks -- lessons learned from times past.
The stocks that follow are choices I made a while ago. I have been long the following stocks this year and currently carry long positions in each. Today I stuck a toe in the water on Dell Computer (DELL: news, chart, profile).
Technology stocks have under performed this year and there is one big cap that I will examine that is very good for a trade right now and that is IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile).
The tech stocks that I carry the heaviest positions in are Symantech (SYMC: news, chart, profile), Adobe (ADBE: news, chart, profile), Apple (AAPL: news, chart, profile), and Qualcomm (QCOM: news, chart, profile).
Dell
Dell can get another visit and another try. It is trading well right now and will likely challenge the top of its base. If Dell can cross 37.20 on a close in heavy trade then the stock ought to be bought aggressively.
Start buying the stock as it crosses 36.20. I invite you to examine a daily chart and see the action in the stock over the last year. Dell is up only 5 percent this year. It is up only 6 percent in the last 52 weeks. The high made on October 18th of last year will get challenged. Dell is in a long term advance that could receive a burst of energy should the base be taken out. Volume should exceed 20 million shares.
Short covering will lift the shares as well. Pure buyers are better. Use 33.99 as a sell stop.
IBM
The stock is oversold and bouncing off the bottom of its trading range so the risk is low. IBM is a good stock right now and could result in a good trade over the next few months. The stock is good for a trade up to its 200-day moving average. If you want to get cute and go fishing on the bottom for oversold stocks why not choose a big fish.
So IBM is curling off the bottom of its range. That is a fact. The market bottomed on August 13th. IBM bottomed the day before hitting its 52-week low. This is an ugly chart and the best way to handle it is to sell into strength. Stocks like IBM and the Semiconductors as a whole are providing good trading chances right now. The better trade is to sell into strength.
Place the stop on IBM at 84.25. That is below its declining 50-day moving average. Odds favor this stock will be a good short a few months after the election. Right now it is good for a trade up to the 200-day moving average of 90.55. The current price is roughly 87.
Top tech picks
Now for the most exciting stocks right now in the technology sector: Symantech, McAffe, Apple, Qualcomm, and Adobe.
The action in SYMC is quite good. I bought it back recently after selling it in the early spring as it moved into an intermediate term slump.
The stock slumps no longer. This stock SYMC could explode should it cross 51 on a closing basis. The stocks is in fine shape technically. Examine the chart. Don't look at a 5 minute chart. Lets be serious about making real money. This stock as long as it trades above its key inflection points and continues to advance should be owned. How do you buy it? Are you serious about making money in the stock market? Then get involved in stocks that are rising. The way to buy SYMC is on a price above 51 near the close of business. It is on the verge of reaching that key point. That is the 52-week high and its five-year high for that matter. It will go higher for a while.
Growth typically outperforms post election, so this stock -- along with the others mentioned -- tend to outperform. When you take on SYMC you are taking on a stock that provides steady long term growth. It's perhaps the best performing tech stock over the last five years. The stock trades near its all time high. SYMC is up 47 percent this year and 70 percent year over year. Nasdaq ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) has lagged this year thanks to the dismal performance of semiconductors. This stock has led and continues to lead and will provide you steady gains over the next several months. It never dropped below its 200-day moving average this year. It did fail to hold the 50-day line earlier in the year and has since recovered. It needs greater volume to really spark a serious climb.
Related to SYMC is McAfee (MFE: news, chart, profile). This stock can get to 30 quickly if it can plow through 21. Right now is a good time to stick a toe in the water.
It is making a stab toward breaking out to a new 52-week high and trading in sync with SYMC. The charts have similar patterns over the last year. SYMC is the stronger stock of the two yet both can be owned as part of a basket.
They led nicely last year and are still leading the tech space in 2004. MFE is currently up 30 percent this year and 35 percent year over year. The stock has performed quite nicely since bottoming out at the end of July. So the advance has reemerged. A close above 20 and the stock could fly. The 21 range is key and a 50 percent return is doable -- and that could happen within a few months. The odds are pointing in that direction. I invite you to examine the chart of MFE.
Adobe Systems is one of the best software stocks around right now.
The stock broke out the other day in heavy volume when it took out its 52-week high. It popped over that point with ease but the volume is a little disappointing. The stock is a leader no doubt about that. Ask any shareowner how they feel about the current performance in ADBE and they will offer up a smile. Happy shareowners typically means good performance. The stock offers good performance and the numbers provide the evidence.
Clearly the stock is a leader. It broke through the 52-week high the other day. It didn't get there moving straight up. Stocks never do. ADBE did violate its 50- and 200-day moving averages several times this year. The perceived risk in the stock is currently low and that is what is driving the price.
Investors want to own this stock. It enjoys positive money flow yet the volume is not quite where it ought to be to really get excited about its future chances. Right now the stock is up 27 percent this year and only 26 percent in the last 52 weeks. The advance is not mature. The stock can get going. It is way off the five-year high and could take off. It won't get back to the five-year high anytime soon, however. The likely move from my view of the price pattern is a move to the 55 to 57 zone. It currently trades just under 50. The stock is poised to make a move. It could be bought in the 47 to 48 zone. Right now it is slightly extended. It's up over 6 percent in the last five days. It ought to come in a tad and that is a good moment to jump right on it. Use 44.49 and 40.99 to stop the loss.
Apple Computer and QCOM are the final two tech stocks that form the basket of tech stocks that I am currently involved in. I must confess that I trimmed a piece of QCOM at 39 and change the other day because it is slightly extended. QCOM trades close to 30 percent above its 200-day moving average and the stock really has to come in to the 36 to 37 level for it to be attractive. So I took a piece out but am prepared to buy more coming in to its rising 50-day line.
QCOM has a rising 50- and 200- day line and perhaps the best performing large-cap tech stock around. It has been this year and over the last 52 week as well. The stock split 2-for-1 the other day implying confidence. The stock popped into this current advance as the rising 50-day line came in direct contact with the share price.
The last break out in the stock occurred on august 19th. The stock rose at that time in better then average trade pulling away form its rising 50 day line. The stock wants to stay around and trade near that line and as long as that line is rising the stock is likely to follow suite. Place the stop at 33.99.
Apple Computer is a leader that is extended. The stock has made quite the move this year and is perfuming exceedingly well. AAPL is up 67 percent this year. The year over year gain has all occurred this year. The solid advance began after the stock broke through its three-year plus high earlier in the year and struggled for a while finally breaking through recently.
Examine the weekly chart and notice the big gap that is in the process of getting filled. The stock has the potential to rise into the mid 40's and ultimately challenge 55 a share. That was the zone when it free fell on Sept. 29, 2000. It fell from 55 to 26 in a day. It is now on track to backtrack. The stock is currently extended so it could be had between 33 and 34. The stock will not move straight to 55 so manage it.
Place the initial stop loss at the 50 day moving average 31.99 and a final stop at 29.60. Give AAPL some room.
The current market is in rally mode. Europe and Asia have turned as well. Growth tends to outperform value after a presidential election for at least a while. The market will be higher in six months than it is today.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
Today's stock post
Callahaway golf is 2 years low (ELY). One should buy
TASR has announced guns for consumers. One should buy.
INTC is lowest and today in marketwatch, I see the news that Tech stocks are going up.
MAT (Mattel) is lowest in 2 years. It will go up.
I have some CISCO's puts sold. I need to watch out and buy it back.
NUE steel keeps going up. Buy at 88.5 and sell 80 call.
Buy Flex and sell 17.50 call at 2.30
Visteon VC is lowest. Keep a watch and buy at 6.50
Can Imclone systems be bought.
Buy Lear at 56 and sell at 66
HPQ got some defence contract. Ripe for buy.
SONY bought MGM. sell SONY
Buy BBI (blockbuster. It is recommended by power options as Last price 7.75 - Jan 7.50 call options @ 0.70 -> 6.4% Return assigned.
Keep a watch on KKD and NILE, the diamond seller.
Buy TOLL at 46 and sell $60 call option for 5.10
Buy PKS, CSCO, TXN, IGT
TASR has announced guns for consumers. One should buy.
INTC is lowest and today in marketwatch, I see the news that Tech stocks are going up.
MAT (Mattel) is lowest in 2 years. It will go up.
I have some CISCO's puts sold. I need to watch out and buy it back.
NUE steel keeps going up. Buy at 88.5 and sell 80 call.
Buy Flex and sell 17.50 call at 2.30
Visteon VC is lowest. Keep a watch and buy at 6.50
Can Imclone systems be bought.
Buy Lear at 56 and sell at 66
HPQ got some defence contract. Ripe for buy.
SONY bought MGM. sell SONY
Buy BBI (blockbuster. It is recommended by power options as Last price 7.75 - Jan 7.50 call options @ 0.70 -> 6.4% Return assigned.
Keep a watch on KKD and NILE, the diamond seller.
Buy TOLL at 46 and sell $60 call option for 5.10
Buy PKS, CSCO, TXN, IGT
